Posted: Sunday, April 17, 2016. 6:08 p.m. CST
By Aaron Humes: The Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Prediction issued by Philip J. Klotzbach, Research Scientist, and William M. Gray, Professor Emeritus, at the Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, at the National Tropical Weather Conference, calls for 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.
“We anticipate that the 2016 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have approximately average activity. The current weakening El Niño is likely to transition to either neutral or La Niña conditions by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season,” the forecasters said.
They furthermore predict “a near-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”
But what about Belize? The published data indicates that there is a 33% chance that one or more named storms will track within 50 miles of The Jewel but there is only a 6% chance of a major hurricane coming that close. On the other hand, there is a 39% chance of a named storm coming within 100 miles of Belize, and an 18% chance that a hurricane would come that close.
Since the name Alex was already used for the hurricane which emerged this January, the next named storm would be Bonnie. The other names picked for the 2016 hurricane season are: Colin, Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Gaston, Hermine, Ian, Julia, Karl, Lisa, Matthew, Nicole, Otto, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tobias, Virginie and Walter.
“Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted,” the CSU added.
It notes that the Atlantic basin—the area including the entire North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico—has the largest year-to-year variability of any of the global tropical cyclone basins.
Belize’s National Met Service is currently reviewing the forecast and will issue comment later on.
© 2016, www.breakingbelizenews.com. This article is the copyrighted property of Belize Media Group. Written permission must be obtained before reprint in online or print media. REPRINTING CONTENT WITHOUT PERMISSION AND/OR PAYMENT IS THEFT AND PUNISHABLE BY LAW.